Chination Report Exclusive (www.chinationreport.com)

In the next 20 years China will rise to a significant international power militarily, economically, politically and culturally. On this topic, there exists ample analysis based on hard facts, statistics and widely accepted assumptions such as future growth rate of GDP and military spending. According to Justin Lin Yifu, chief economist-designate of the World Bank, China’s economy could be 2.5 times that of the US by 2030. He compares the Chinese economy in 2000 with that of Japan in 1960. Japan’s economy continued high growth for 30 more years before the economy peaked. With an 8% projected annual growth rate, by 2030, the Chinese per capita GDP may reach half that of Americans and China’s total GDP 2.5 times that of America. This seems to be the most optimistic forecast for the Chinese economy. “The Economist” predicts China to replace USA as the country with the highest GDP/PPP by 2020. By then, the Chinese economy could possibly constitute as much as 20% of the world’s total GDP.

Simultaneous to its economic growth, today China is building up its military at a rapid pace and its military spending is expected to catch up with that of the US by 2030. With the world’s biggest one party system, biggest army and a military striving for modernization, China’s rise in military power often casts suspicion abroad and draws sharp criticism from the US and its western allies. China’s motivation behind its desire for a strong military is often subject to heated debate. For the Chinese, it is a lesson learnt from the country’s war-ridden past and subsequent downfall beginning from the end of Qing Dynasty. The unresolved Taiwan-China issue with US’s commitment to Taiwan’s defense is another motivation for China to achieve and maintain a strong military position. There is little doubt that America is still by far the strongest military power from every aspect, but I am sure it is understood by all parties at stake that any military intervention into China’s guarded borders and interests would bring devastating and far-reaching consequences. Although history proves that the formation of any world power is always accompanied by the presence of a strong military, in today’s global and transparent world, any voluntary exercise of military power in the form of war will actually diminish the chance of China becoming a real world superpower. As China becomes more aware of its own limits and what it has to lose on the world political stage, China will become more willing to engage in dialogue and diplomacy, less willing to deploy troops for any military cause other than self-defense. Therefore, I truly believe and hope that China is building a military power so strong that it actually never has to use it. Mao said that “Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed.” The Chinese word “peace” or “Ping An” is actually made of two parts: “Ping” is balance while “An” is safety. Safety is achieved when the world is balanced. China understands this and has repeatedly emphasized that its rise will be peaceful without causing any military threat to other countries. But in the meantime, it believes that “peace” can only be achieved when the powers are balanced. From the Chinese point of view, this explains why building a strong Chinese military will give China and the region a balance against the super military power from the US, projected strategically from all US bases in the Far East, surrounding China’s borders.

If a strong GDP provides the foundation and means for China to become a world superpower and a strong military provides the security for the power to sustain itself. Both conditions are necessary but not sufficient. What remains is for China to build common interests with the world community so that its power can project beyond its borders and become truly influential on world matters. The importance of common interests to a superpower and its capability to build alliances is as cement is to a brick building. Countries are made of people. People are together because of shared values, shared potential opportunities and prosperity. For China to become a recognized world superpower, numbers in GDP and military spending are far from enough. It will and can only be achieved through further political transparency - to gain trust and accumulation of international goodwill - to gain respect through free trade, economic aid, cultural exchange and skillful diplomacy.

China’s biggest challenge and potential crisis is its lack of natural resources. Crisis, as explained in its Chinese expression “Wei Ji”, means “danger” and “opportunity”. This challenge has been creating a huge opportunity for China to make political friends, build economic ties and an equally huge opportunity for resource-rich countries to enjoy a similar economic boom. According to Xinhua News, trade between Brazil and China increased 42.55% in 2007 versus 2006, reaching $23.3 billion. Powered by the 1.3 billion Chinese consumers’ appetite for meat, China’s lack in agricultural land and water supply makes Brazil an ideal partner in supplying soybeans. As explained by Chinese Ambassador to Brazil, Mr. Chen Duqing, in an NPR news interview, the Chinese and Brazilian economies are "mutually complementary" and that with China as a partner Brazil will reduce its dependence on the U.S. market. According to the same article in NPR news, “Growing Trade Ties China to Latin America” by Julie McCarth, “In the broader frame, the U.S. market share in Brazil has declined the past five years as China's has surged… The United States' focus on the war in Iraq made it possible for newcomer China to begin to eclipse the United States in its traditional sphere of influence.”

Similarly, China’s thirst for natural resources partially explains the huge trade increase between China and Africa. Stephanie Hanson, Managing Editor at World Resources Institute, wrote in a June 2008 article titled “China, Africa and Oil” that “China now ranks as the continent's second-highest trading partner, behind the United States, and ahead of France and Britain. From 2002 to 2003, trade between China and Africa doubled to $18.5 billion; by 2007, it had reached $73 billion.” Although China’s government relationship to Sudan has been subject to strong criticism, according to the author, "Africa registered 5.8 percent economic growth in 2007, its highest level ever, in part because of Chinese investment. Experts say the roads, bridges, and dams built by Chinese firms are low cost, good quality, and completed in a fraction of the time such projects usually take in Africa. China also contributes peacekeepers to UN missions across Africa, including Liberia and Darfur. It has cancelled $10 billion in bilateral debt from African countries, sends doctors to treat Africans across the continent, and hosts thousands of African workers and students in Chinese universities and training centers." Few can argue that the amount of efforts has helped China build strong goodwill and strengthen China’s position as an important player in Africa, a continent traditionally strongly tied to Europe and the US.

Back in 1988 when I was studying in Beijing, my Chinese and foreign student colleagues put on a play called “The Campus in 2030.” The play described romantic scenes with a few story lines projected to happen in my university around the year 2030. It was about how young western students studying there tried everything to find a Chinese spouse to marry in order to obtain a Chinese residence card. The play was a laughing topic for us for a long time. As we all remember, the years around 1988 were the prime time when Chinese were doing everything to get a Green Card and eventually citizenship in America. Nobody believed that the reverse was ever going to happen. For most of us, the play was just wishful thinking.

Not any more! 20 years after that play was performed, more and more ordinary Chinese and even foreigners began to see what has become possible for their future, not just in America, but in China. I consider the penetration and adoption level of a language beyond its natural borders a good indication of power influence. When France was once a much stronger world power than it is today, French was widely adopted as a common language for international matters until the British Empire replaced France on the world’s stage. Since then and because of the superpower flag being passed over to another English speaking country – the USA - English has continued to be the predominant international language for over a century. Given that Chinese is such a fundamentally different language from western languages, it might be hard to imagine that one day people from different parts of the world will meet to find themselves speaking Chinese in order to communicate with each other.

Really? I have a Swiss friend who is married to a Mongolian lady with a daughter living in America. Their only common language happens to be Chinese. I admit that this is still rather a rare situation. But certainly more and more Americans and westerners have begun to learn Chinese. Some high schools in America now offer Chinese language classes. In colleges in some Asian countries, Chinese has become the hottest subject to learn. If the future is hard to predict, we can take a look at history. Just like many Western languages trace the roots back to Latin, many Asian languages have roots in ancient Chinese - Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, to name a few. A Chinatown in Chinese is called “Tang People’s Street” all over the world. It is no coincidence that China’s Tang Dynasty happened to be the world’s strongest economy at the time and its cultural influence was so far reaching that today’s overseas Chinese still call themselves the People of Tang. When I visited Hong Kong 15 years ago, Hong Kong people hardly spoke any Mandarin Chinese. As China’s GDP rises, so does the Mandarin skill of Hong Kong people. Today they speak Mandarin just like a mainlander does. Similar situation has been observed in Singapore and some other Asian countries.

Many wonder what can be the long term binding glue between China and its foreign partners, especially its close neighbors. Trading and economic co-dependency absolutely helps. But there are still plenty of issues, disputes and wounds between China and some of its strongest trading partners in the Far East. If the USA and its western allies have been able to stay together behind the ideology of democracy and freedom, what can be that potential higher purpose to bind together a country or region like Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Philippines and China? Is there anything beyond oil imports and textile exports? When I finally began to understand the true meaning of the call for a “Harmonious Society” by Mr. Hu Jingtao, I realized that China has found its glue to bring people together. It is not Communism, not western democracy and individualism. Rather, it is the 2500 year old Confucianism, the Confucianism which focuses on human morality and common-good deeds; which honors order and virtue. This philosophy resonates within many Asian societies and elsewhere in the world.

Indeed, old can be new, new can be old. China has created its own path to prosperity and is defining its own message to restore its past glory. When the powers are balanced, economic and social gaps among peoples reduced, I believe the world will become a better place for all.

(Copyright 2008 Chination Report)